Projecting school enrollment in East Cobb through 2032

Projecting school enrollment in East Cobb through 2033

by
Projecting school enrollment in East Cobb through 2032
The East Cobb area won’t be growing that much over the next-quarter century. Education Planners presentation.

At last week’s Cobb Board of Education presentation on long-term enrollment projections, Superintendent Chris Ragsdale’s comments on apartments and transience got most of the attention.

But the demographic forecast by Education Planners, a private company that provides the Cobb County School District with detailed metrics, continues a pattern in regards to enrollment at East Cobb schools.

There’s been little to no growth for several years, and what has increased is very slight. According to school-by-school forecasts (see tables below), most public schools in the East Cobb area will be at or under capacity between now and 2033.

And overall projections for the district are expected to remain steady during that period, from 105,738 currently, to 106,013 in 2028 and 195,932 by 2033.

“We are growing, but we are growing in pockets,” James Wilson, Education Planners president, told the Cobb school board.

Most of the overcrowding and enrollment growth continues in the Cumberland-Smyrna area, where a new middle school—Betty Gray Middle School—opened in recent years.

In addition, capacity has increased at Campbell High School, which has the largest enrollment in the district with around 3,000 students.

And while Osborne High School got a new campus in 2020 built for 2,300 students, it’s still well over capacity, to nearly 2,800 students.

The demographics at schools in East Cobb are different, including the two biggest high schools, Walton, which is just under capacity.

However, Wheeler High School and its feeder, East Cobb Middle School, are projected to remain above capacity over the next few years.

That’s the only attendance cluster in the East Cobb area that contains a significant number of apartment complexes.

Brumby Elementary School, also in the Wheeler cluster, is below capacity after being overcrowded in its former location on Powers Ferry Road.

East Side and Sope Creek elementary schools, both in the Walton cluster, are expected to remain close to their four-figure capacities, as are Dickerson and Dodgen middle schools (Walton) and Lassiter High School.

Education Planners takes data from the Atlanta Regional Commission, Cobb building permits, live birth numbers and other sources to project long-term enrollment to help Cobb school district officials plan for school construction needs.

A rebuild of the Sprayberry High School classroom building is underway and will be completed next year, and there are classroom additions at other schools in East Cobb.

Bells Ferry Elementary School also is getting a replacement facility that is slated to open in 2027.

Additional district-wide dem0graphic data from Wilson’s presentation is included the East Cobb enrollment projections. Click the middle button to view the slideshow.

Elementary Schools

Capacity Oct. 2024 Projected 2028 Projected 2032
Addison 662 571 576 561
Bells Ferry 737 704 698 694
Blackwell 837 580 616 611
Brumby 1,162 963 938 933
Davis 800 635 598 584
East Side 1,087 1,072 1,109 1,094
Eastvalley 962 679 684 688
Garrison Mill 700 649 634 628
Keheley 600 393 373 324
Kincaid 762 603 563 558
Mt. Bethel 937 898 934 922
Mountain View 962 837 808 814
Murdock 962 847 881 853
Nicholson 637 413 386 377
Powers Ferry 462 475 408 396
Rocky Mount 612 576 552 546
Sedalia Park 912 634 583 567
Shallowford Falls 962 591 583 567
Sope Creek 1,162 1,104 1,051 1,041
Timber Ridge 612 529 478 472
Tritt 937 804 778 761
District-wide n/a 45,615 44,867 44,427

Middle Schools

Capacity Oct. 2024 Projected 2028 Projected 2033
Daniell 1,175 884 870 890
Dickerson 1,237 1,225 1,234 1,233
Dodgen 1,237 1,178 1,249 1,232
East Cobb 1,287 1,352 1,349 1,339
Hightower Trail 1,012 944 983 977
Mabry 1,162 938 936 929
McCleskey 937 540 575 566
Simpson 962 884 844 834
District-wide n/a 23,953 24,846 25,032

High Schools

Capacity Oct. 2024 Projected 2028 Projected 2033
Kell 2,025 1,587 1,528 1,620
Lassiter 2,087 2,005 2,015 2,020
Pope 1,912 1,793 1,823 1,809
Sprayberry 2,087 1,769 1,863 1,861
Walton 2,812 2,705 2,686 2,658
Wheeler 2,262 2,401 2,382 2,371
District-wide n/a 35,190 36,300 36,473

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

 

Related:

 

Get Our Free E-Mail Newsletter!

Every Sunday we round up the week’s top headlines and preview the upcoming week in the East Cobb News Digest. Click here to sign up and you’re good to go!