Cobb COVID case counts fall Archives

Cobb COVID case counts fall

For the last two months the rate of new COVID-19 cases has been falling steadily in Cobb County.

After high spikes during the early summer in the number of cases, test positivity rates and other metrics, those numbers have reached levels that public health officials have targeted for reopening of schools, among other things.

Cobb is closing on 20,000 cases, with 19,283 as of 3 p.m. Wednesday, according to the Georgia Department of Public Health.

That’s the third-highest total in the state, trailing Fulton County (27,247) and Gwinnett County (26,931). Cobb’s death count of 423 is second only to 568 in Fulton County.

But the downward shift in slowing the spread of the virus is one of the more encouraging trends in Georgia.

The chart above is the Cobb case progression according to the date of onset (meaning the day a positive test was confirmed).

Compared to the single-day high in terms of seven-day moving average of 296 on July 11, that rolling total was down to 79 as of Sept. 9, two weeks ago from today.

Georgia DPH issues a 14-day rolling average line (at the far right in the graphic above), indicating that data in that window is likely to be added due to lags in reporting.

One of the key metrics noted by Cobb school superintendent Chris Ragsdale in his decision to phase in classroom return starting in October is the cases per 100,000 people figure.

The Cobb Geographic Information Systems unit released the graphic below earlier Wednesday showing another steep drop in that figure.

Cobb GIS COVID 140-day per 100k chart

Public health advisors have said that anything more than a 14-day average of 100 cases or more per 100,000 is considered high community spread.

When Ragsdale announced the Cobb schools reopening, he said he was aiming for an average of between 100 and 200.

After Cobb’s two-week rolling number topped out close to 500 in early August (noted on blue line) it’s now down to 146 per 100,000.

That’s a trend that’s occurring through metro Atlanta and a good portion of the state.

At Tuesday’s Cobb Board of Commissioners meeting, Chairman Mike Boyce noted the numbers and thanked Cobb citizens for doing their part to slow the spread of the virus.

He has been reluctant to issue a mask mandate, but asked citizens to continue following what he has called a “nice mask ask,” as well as regular hand-washing and physical distancing practices.

Some Georgia cities and counties have imposed mask mandates, but Gov. Brian Kemp has not made a statewide edict. The current hot spots with high averages of cases per 100,000 people are in various rural areas.

A total of 309,678 confirmed cases of COVID-19 have been reported in Georgia, with 6,773 deaths.

Those include 1,577 cases and 98 deaths reported on Wednesday. Cobb reported 95 new cases and no new deaths.

Another positive metric for Cobb is a drop in the percentage of positive tests. On Wednesday, for the first time since early June, that number in the county was five percent. Anything over that is considered is a high figure according to public health officials.

In Cobb that seven-day moving average topped out around 30 percent in late March and was in double figures until mid-July.

The Cobb and Douglas Public Health agency updates those and other county figures, including the pie chart below breaking down Cobb COVID cases by age group.

While more than three-quarters of those who have died in Cobb are 70 and older, the biggest age groups with positive tests are younger.

Cobb cases by age CDPH 9.23.20