KSU economist downplays election-year recession fears

The U.S. economy has experienced 121 consecutive months of economic expansion, nearly a full decade since the 2008-09 recession began to fade.

That streak, noted Kennesaw State University economist Roger Tutterow, “is the longest of the post-World War II era.”

According to some forecasts, Tutterow said in remarks before the East Cobb Business Association last week, “that means we must be due for a recession.

“I don’t think that’s necessarily true.”

The year 2020 is a presidential election year in the United States, which typically brings with it economic concerns. Some economists are rating the chance of a recession at 50-50 or higher.

Tutterow, an economic forecaster, said that in election years, the risk of a recession is “elevated,” but thinks there could be a one-in-three chance of an American economic backslide.

“Most likely,” Tutterow said, there will be “a continued trajectory of growth” in the U.S. economy.

What bolsters his view is that “consumers are keeping the economy humming on all cylinders.

“It’s confidence in the consumer sector that’s keeping us out of a recession,” Tutterow said.

There are some trouble signs, though, including the manufacturing sector, which Tutterow said “is under a lot of stress.”

The impact of Trump Administration-imposed tariffs on the economy also figures to create some uncertainty, especially as the president will be running for re-election.

Tutterow, who describes himself as a free trader, said Trump “believes he needs to level the playing field that he believes is unfair for American producers.

“That raises the prices for goods you buy from overseas.”

A stronger American dollar also has affected trade; Tutterow said its value has grown by a third since 2011.

“A strong dollar doesn’t help those things that we export,” he said.

As for the housing market, Tutterow  said that it’s “quite strong.” A total of 1.4 million new starts since the recession is “not bad, but we’re nowhere near we were from 2005 to 2007.”

He said the Cobb housing market is maturing, and that the rate of growth for the moment isn’t as much as it has been in the past.

“I am worried that multi-family housing is being overbuilt,” Tutterow said.

Overall in the Atlanta area that’s not true, he said, but locally there’s “too much vertical high-priced housing” that is coming online.

As for the 2020 elections, primaries get underway in February, with the Democratic presidential nominee likely to be determined by the spring.

The presidential campaign, “Tutterow said, “will be a debate about the fundamental direction of the country.”

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