Since we began breaking down COVID-19 cases, deaths and other data in Cobb County and specifically East Cobb, we’ve been getting queries from readers imploring us to dig further into the numbers.
Some think the seriousness of the virus is overstated considering the high number of people who test negative and the very high percentage of those who recover.
They worry that a slide back into lockdowns would not only devastate the local economy, but some wonder if there isn’t an intent to close things down until after the November elections.
Others think we’re not doing enough to illustrate the spread of a virus that’s killed and sickened far too many people, and that we should hunker down until the case numbers decline, or a vaccine is developed.
Most just want to know how to better understand numbers that are floating around in incredible quantities, and from an increasing variety of sources.
The biggest problem is the limited range of the data that is community-specific, and especially pertaining to East Cobb.
On Friday a total of 339 new COVID-19 cases were reported in Cobb County, a weekday single-day high since the Georgia Department of Public Health began issuing daily updates in March.
Those reflect a sharp spike in cases across Georgia, which was the first to “reopen” from substantial shelter-in-place mandates in April.
(A total of 556 new cases were reported in Cobb on Monday, July 6, reflecting a lag due to the Independence Day holiday weekend.)
As of Friday in Cobb County, there were 6,708 confirmed cases of COVID-19, fourth-highest in Georgia, and 250 deaths, second only to Fulton County.
On Saturday, Cobb’s case count rose by 232, to 6,950 cases, and three more deaths were added, for 253 overall.
Those are staggering numbers, and some readers have been asking us what exactly do they mean? It’s easy to see graphs and charts showing big jumps in cases alone and get very jittery. How concerned should we be?
What’s the larger context we should be thinking about? Who’s getting the most sick and dying the most, and who’s experiencing only mild symptoms or none at all?
This more recent crest of cases—which is disproportionately affecting younger age groups—is not bringing with it the death rates we saw in the spring, when many elderly and at-risk people were the primary casualties.
They still are. But you’ve got to go the state public health website to find that out, and count out literally one-by-one.
The Cobb and Douglas Public Health website, like the state’s, has a lot of valuable information, but quite often it’s hard to parse data that readers say they want us to examine.
CDPH breaks down cases by age group, but not deaths. It also tracks the test positivity rate (how many people test positive against all those it tests), which is at 6.76 percent in Cobb, up from around five percent just a few weeks ago.
Those are figures noted by Dr. Janet Memark, director of Cobb and Douglas Public Health, who issued a public health alert last week as a result.
CDPH has tested 18,571 people in Cobb County. If you factor in those 253 deaths, that’s 1.36 percent of people in Cobb who’ve been tested for the virus—at least by our public health agency—who’ve died.
If you measure deaths against what as of Saturday is now 6,940 positive cases (what’s called a case fatality rate), that figure is 3.6 percent.
Cobb government’s Geographic Information Systems department also has been tracking COVID numbers, focusing mostly on data stemming from case and death counts.
How many of those who are testing positive these days are seriously ill? Beyond hospitalization numbers, which have been going up in Cobb and elsewhere in Georgia but are still considered manageable, that’s unclear.
How many people have mild or no symptoms at all also isn’t known. Since anyone is being encouraged to get tested, it would be helpful to know how many asymptomatic cases there are. But that’s data that isn’t readily available.
In East Cobb, we’ve had 1,271 confirmed cases of the virus, and 44 deaths. That’s up from 1,034 and 41 a week ago. But that’s about all that we know, for now.
As we noted in that last report, 16 of those deaths were in ZIP Code 30068, in East Cobb, which has a number of long-term care homes.
While that information has been helpful, it’s become public only in recent weeks. There’s nothing more in the ZIP Code data to indicate the infection rate (those who test positive against those tested) and the case fatality rate.
We don’t even know the age, gender or racial breakdowns by ZIP Code, or how many of those cases involved people with other underlying health issues.
This is information that might calm the fears of many citizens, fears that have been skyrocketing in recent weeks.
Right before Friday’s numbers came out, Cobb Commission Chairman Mike Boyce said he wouldn’t issue a mask mandate, as some mayors have done in Georgia, because he thinks it’s unenforceable.
After Friday’s numbers were reported, the Cobb County School District issued revised reopening plans that do not require staff or students to wear masks.
That’s set off a firestorm of emotion and anxiety that figures to get even more heated before classes start next month.
How masks became such a fraught issue is a topic for another column, but it does show the continuing uncertainty, not just over data, but how to interpret it and how to develop strategies to combat the virus.
We are drowning in data without having a better understanding of it. Other data that might better explain how many people seriously become sick, or not, is harder to come by.
Yet politicians and public health officials keep peddling the same pedestrian messages they have since March—wash your hands, practice social distancing, and wear a mask in public.
Gee, thanks Mom.
After four months, this is all they can still say? This isn’t reassuring the public any more than continuing to extend emergency orders, as the governor and judges have done, at least until August, and possibly into the fall.
How much longer will business owners, employees, students and parents, religious worshippers, sports fans and everyday citizens be told to continue placing their lives and well-being on indefinite hold?
How much longer will there be public demands to mask up, and lock down, healthy people? Especially school children, who are in an age group with the fewest virus cases of all? Is this even a good thing for our society to expect?
The numbers are all over the place, begging to be better organized, and so are the reactions to a crisis that seems to have no end.
Cobb County appears to be in good shape, based on data that goes beyond raw case and death counts.
However, those are the metrics that dominate government response, media coverage and good bit of public opinion.
They’re also feeding a social contagion that’s sweeping through our country faster than COVID-19, and that might be the most difficult outbreak of all to contain.
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Residents badly need a weekly map with the number of new (prior week – not cumulative) Covid-19 cases and deaths there have been in each E. Cobb zip code.
This is necessary so that we can get an idea of the safety of grocery shopping, medical visits, etc.
For those who asked this is a link to the map at the top of the story, that tracks COVID deaths by ZIP Code in Cobb County. The icons are for senior care homes. You can click on each ZIP Code and senior care home icon for more details.
https://cobbcountyga.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=00405056d67c4b1391a4f7cba97b3e54&fbclid=IwAR155LAFc6sc6oJ-OqX9fn_kqp8WRn_N_sbfvXtXFMA3FO2QpUGVV6A14dI
Wendy, Thank you for the article and the information. I appreciate both doing your best to inform based on the data available as well as to highlight the limits of the available data.
I have heard that if a person is tested multiple times, each test constitutes a new result. For example, if I test positive and can’t leave the house until I again test negative, I might get tested everyday until I test negative. If so, this would skew the results by exaggerate the positive values. (Note that I’m not suggesting any conspiracy or hype, I just want accurate and meaningful statistics.) Do you know if it is true that the statistics are by test and not by person? If so, is there any way to normalize the results?
Again, thank you for the informative article.
To open school and not just move first semester to remote option only is the way to increase cases and spread out virus. Anyway end of September a lot of school will be shout down anyway back due to covid cases and this craziness will continue. Better it will be to have unify system, same for all -online only and open after school sport activities first without supporters and see how this will go. Step by step…
Was this article supposed to be informative or a means for you to express your obvious distaste for the only thing we know helps prevent the transmission of the virus.By the way, most epidemiologists and infectious disease experts believe the total number of cases could be as high as 10 times the current number of confirmed cases. That is about 10% of the nations population. The common sense precautions that have been recommended are not a result of the situation being overstated. Practicing them is also not synonymous with being “locked down”. False narrative!!
Where is the color key for the initial map?
I’m curious how you can say Cobb County is in good shape when our ICU’s are completely full?
And when that chart is clearly going up so sharply at the right end. Are they not looking at the same chart they put into their article?
The Cobb County school plan is pretty bad. No mask mandates for either teacher or students, seems to be asking for trouble. Not to mention the amount of students in outside trailers with poor air flow and limited space to social distance.
I also dont think we should be so confident that kids and teenagers are any less susceptible to COVID than adults. Having them at home since March may very well be whats keeping that demographics numbers low. But correlation doesn’t equal causation I will admit that. However, risking the health of teachers and students just for the sake of getting students back to school doesn’t seem necessary. There are safer ways to begin reopening schools like A/B schedules, or Hybrid classes. It also would have helped for the county to have been more proactive and begin developing better plans for virtual learning, giving teacher adequate time to create lessons
I was interested in reading an analysis of Cobb’s Covid-19 numbers, but the article quickly devolved into a rambling, incoherent rant. “Gee, thanks Mom”? “Social contagion”?What?
I wish you’d listen to an epidemiologist instead of trying to make sense of data you don’t seem to understand – Amber Schmidtke puts out a great daily report where she breaks down the Georgia data.
With our current rapidly rising case rate, we’ll most likely see death rates rising as well within the next few weeks – this isn’t the kind of disease where most people die a day or two after diagnosis – but our actions now can help us control the spread.
The social contagion that scares me is the myth that you yourself are propagating, that we’re in “good shape” and maybe it’s time to stop taking precautions. That’s the kind of recommendation that literally kills people. As of July 9, the 4 county region of Georgia that includes Cobb county had a total of 17 critical care hospital beds available. That’s it. So no, we’re not in good shape.
I did not write nor did I imply that people shouldn’t take precautions. I’d be interested to hear from readers what they think those should entail and how to balance valid public health concerns with the need to reopen our community and society.
Wendy,
This is an excellent and informative article much needed at this time while parents decide what to do for school. While I have done a lot of research on the activity this virus can have, there is also information out there about how much it DOES do in normally healthy people and how to protect and/or treat yourself at home if you have been exposed or have symptoms. I’m no longer worried about what to do if I should join those who have had this disease.
74 in East Cobb.
If you’re looking for a balance between public health and reopening the economy (excluding schools, that’s a different discussion), your article already stated it – wash your hands, socially distance where possible, and wear a mask when you can’t socially distance. Doing that will lower the transmission of the virus and allow us to get back to some semblance pre-virus normalcy.
Unfortunately, those simple precautions seem to be beyond some people, which in turn prolongs the virus and it’s economic impact on our community/society.
Judging by the last few paragraphs and your sarcastic comment of “gee, thanks mom”, you seem to be one of them.
Please check your math!
253/6940= .036 x 100 = 3.6%
Using incorrect stats gives the impression that the virus is less dangerous than it is.
Be careful!!
You didnt read the next paragraph. She gave that stat of 3.6.
Thank you for trying to clarify the data that is available for Cobb County. I agree that it is frustrating to try to understand the best course of action when the data are so difficult to parse. I did find an error in your article where you say that the Cobb County fatality rate is .036%. This is incorrect according to the figures you use. If the case fatality rate is the number of deaths, 253, divided by the number of positive cases, 6940, then the rate is .036 which is 3.6%. Although still low, the percentage is off by a factor of of 100. Thank you for your article.
That’s been corrected. Thank you.