Cobb school enrollment projections show scattered growth in East Cobb

Growth in student enrollment in public schools in East Cobb is expected to continue over the next few years, but the rate of that increase isn’t projected to be as much as it is in other parts of the county.

A planning consultant hired by the Cobb County School District told school board members in May in his annual enrollment study that population growth in the county has been and will be holding steady, and that will reflect in school enrollment.

(Read and download the full study here)

James Wilson of Marietta-based Education Planners and a former Cobb and Fulton superintendent, issued school-by-school projections over the next decade (see pages 16-19 at the link above, or see charts below. Click each chart for a larger view).

Some schools in East Cobb, and in particular in the Walton cluster, will be well above capacity. But other schools, especially in northeast Cobb close to the Cherokee County line, will have plenty of room at most grade levels.

Wilson said Cobb’s population is expected to grow only by 22 percent between 2015 and 2040, the lowest rate in all of metro Atlanta. Southern parts of Cobb will be experiencing much greater population growth that will impact school capacity.

“We are not going to grow like other districts and other counties,” Wilson said. “We’re getting older.”

Cobb’s 2018 population estimated at around 763,000, and by 2025, it’s expected to grow to 823,000, according to the Atlanta Regional Commission.

But last year, the county’s population grew by only 1,000 people overall. Between 2016-17, the population rose by around 5,000, less than one percent.

In 2018, Cobb schools enrollment was a little over 111,000, down from 113,000 two years before.

That overall number, and grade-level enrollments, are expected to remain relatively steady over the next decade.

 Housing affordability also figures to be a major factor in enrollment patterns.

“Families are choosing to come to Cobb,” Wilson said, “because of the school district, once they can afford to get here.”

Public schools are a major attraction to East Cobb, but the new enrollment projections reflect differing levels of growth in the community.

Many more housing permits are being issued parts of south, west and north Cobb compared to East Cobb. Those new housing starts are solid in the Walton, Sprayberry, Pope and Lassiter clusters.

Attendance at Lassiter, Pope, Walton and Wheeler  is expected to be tight to over capacity in the coming years.

Kell was 386 students under capacity after the 2018-19 school year that just ended, and Sprayberry was 292 spots under capacity.

While Kell’s projections have the school with 557 available spots a decade from now, Sprayberry’s capacity is expected to tighten to only 76 open spots, about the same as Pope.

Wheeler is at capacity for now, but the projections indicate it could be nearly 250 students over capacity by 2028-29, while Walton may be slightly under capacity.

Lassiter is just under capacity now but may be 100 students over in another decade.

Dodgen, Dickerson and Hightower Trail middle schools are over capacity, while there’s plenty of room at Mabry and McCleskey.

At the elementary school level, East Side and Mt. Bethel, in the Walton cluster, are well over capacity.

In the Wheeler cluster, so is the new Brumby Elementary campus, with 59 more students over capacity. Eastvalley Elementary, slated for a new school building, was 160 students over its capacity of 562.

Projections show a rising enrollment to nearly 800 students a decade from now, by the time the school is expected to occupy a new campus at the former site of East Cobb Middle School.

Blackwell, Davis, Keheley, Kincaid, Mountain View and Nicholson and Shallowford Falls elementary are well below capacity and are projected to remain that way.

Get Our Free E-Mail Newsletter!

Every Sunday we round up the week’s top headlines and preview the upcoming week in the East Cobb News Digest. Click here to sign up, and you’re good to go!